Welcome to our sport articles. Here you will find stories from rugby, football, cricket and tennis, plus guides that help you bet smarter. Further down, we explain line tracking: why bookmakers move their odds and how you can use that to find value.
Our Sport Articles
Start with our most popular guide, the biggest mistakes gamblers make when sportsbetting. It covers chasing losses, poor staking and other habits that cost punters money. Then browse our sport stories below.
Mulipola Stays With Leicester Tigers
Samoan prop Logovi’i Mulipola extended his contract with the Leicester Tigers. We look at the Samoan rugby team and its players.
King: “Spurs Not In Crisis”
Ledley King insisted Spurs were not in crisis, despite a slump that left them fighting for a top-four finish.
Gatland Ready for Lions Task
Warren Gatland looked a near certainty for the British and Irish Lions job after leading Wales to another Grand Slam.
Pele: Messi Not the Best, Yet
Pele said Lionel Messi still had a way to go before joining the greats like Beckenbauer, Charlton and Pele himself.
The Australian Tennis Open
The only Grand Slam in the Southern Hemisphere, first played on grass in 1905 and on hard courts since 1988.
Spurs Fans Need to Keep Quiet
Spurs fans love to shout when results go their way. But they go very quiet when things get difficult.
Flower Offers Bairstow Encouragement
England team director Andy Flower backed new Test cricketer Jonny Bairstow to make his mark.
What Is Line Tracking?
Many new punters think sports betting is simple. Pick the winner, collect your money. However, anyone who has bet for a while knows it is not that easy.
A “line” is simply the odds or handicap a bookmaker offers on a match. Line tracking means watching how those odds change between when they are first published and when the match starts. Those changes can tell you a lot about where the money is going and where value might be hiding.
To understand line tracking, you first need to understand how a bookmaker thinks.
How Bookmakers Set Their Lines
A bookmaker’s main goal is to balance each match. Ideally, they want roughly equal money on both sides. That way, the losers’ money pays the winners, and the bookmaker keeps their margin with very little risk.
This margin is often called the “vig” or “juice”. It works a lot like the rake in poker, where the house takes a small cut no matter who wins. As a result, on a perfectly balanced match, the average punter is betting at a slight disadvantage.
Bookmakers use two main types of line:
- Match odds: You simply pick who wins. The bookmaker sets prices so both sides look about equally attractive.
- Handicaps or spreads: The favourite has to win by a set margin. For example, the Springboks might be -12.5 points in a rugby test. This is very popular in rugby and soccer.
In both cases, the bookmaker moves the line if too much money comes in on one side. Their aim is always to make both sides equally appealing again.
| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| Line | The odds or handicap offered on a match |
| Opening line | The first odds a bookmaker publishes |
| Closing line | The final odds just before the match starts |
| Line movement | Any change in the odds between opening and closing |
| Vig or juice | The bookmaker’s built-in margin |
| Sharp money | Bets from experienced, successful punters |
| Square money | Bets from casual punters, often on popular teams |
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Why Do Lines Move?
Lines move for several reasons. Some movements are just noise. Others can point to real value. The trick is telling them apart.
1. Team news
If a star player is injured or rested, the odds will shift. This is the most obvious reason for a line to move. However, by the time most punters hear the news, the price has usually already changed.
2. Sharp money
Bookmakers respect bets from experienced, winning punters. When large, smart bets arrive on one side, the bookmaker often moves the line quickly. Following sharp money can help, but it is hard to spot from the outside.
3. Square money
This is where the hidden value often lies. “Squares” are casual punters who bet on popular teams, big names or gut feelings. When lots of square money floods onto one side, it upsets the bookmaker’s balance.
To fix this, the bookmaker makes the other side more attractive. In other words, they add value that would not otherwise be there. This is sometimes called hidden value, and it is one of the few ways to get the long-term odds on your side.
A Simple Line Movement Example
Let’s look at a made-up example to see how this works in practice. Imagine a popular soccer team is playing a smaller side at home. On Monday, a bookmaker opens the match like this.
| When | Popular team | Draw | Smaller team |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday (opening) | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Thursday | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Saturday (closing) | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
There is no injury news, yet the price on the popular team keeps falling. Why? Most likely, lots of casual fans are backing the big name. To balance its books, the bookmaker pushes out the odds on the draw and the smaller team.
If your own research says the smaller team has about a one in five chance, the 5.50 on Saturday could be a value bet. In contrast, on Monday the same bet at 4.50 would not have been. That is line tracking in action.
How to Track Lines Yourself
You don’t need fancy software to start tracking lines. A simple routine works well:
- Note the opening odds for matches you are interested in.
- Check the odds again a day before and an hour before the match.
- Ask why any big moves happened. Was there team news, or was the public piling on a popular team?
- Compare prices across several South African sportsbooks, as they don’t always move at the same time.
- Record your bets and the closing odds, so you can see if you are beating the market.
Beating the closing line
Many serious punters judge themselves by one simple test. Do they usually get better odds than the closing line? If you regularly bet at bigger odds than the final price, you are probably finding value. Over time, that tends to lead to profit, even if short-term results go up and down.
Common Line Tracking Mistakes
Line tracking is useful, but it is easy to read too much into it. Here are a few traps to avoid.
- Following every move: Not every change means something. Small moves are often just a bookmaker tidying up its prices.
- Betting too late: If you wait for proof, the value has often gone. Sometimes you have to act on a good price when you see it.
- Ignoring the news: Always check team news first. A big move often has a simple reason, like a key player being ruled out.
- Using only one bookmaker: Different sites move at different times. With only one account, you miss the best prices.
Tools That Can Help
You can track lines with nothing more than a notebook. However, a few simple tools make it easier. A spreadsheet lets you log the opening and closing odds for each bet. Odds comparison websites show prices from many bookmakers side by side. Most betting apps also let you set favourites, so you can quickly check how a price has changed.
Whatever you use, the goal is the same. You want to know whether you are getting a better price than the market usually offers. If you are, you are on the right track.
Line Tracking in South African Sport
Line tracking works for any sport, but it is especially useful in the ones South Africans bet on most. For example, odds on big Springbok tests and popular soccer teams often move a lot, because so many fans back them. That public money can push the price on the other side to a level that offers value.
Similarly, the English Premier League attracts huge amounts of square money on the big clubs. Watching how those lines move can show you when the crowd has pushed a price too far.
Line Tracking and Bankroll Management
Finding value is only half the job. Once you have an edge, you still need to manage your money so that edge has time to work. Even good bets lose often. As a result, staking too much on any single bet can wipe out your bankroll before the value pays off.
Keep each bet to a small slice of your bankroll, usually 1% to 3%. Our sports betting strategy guide explains staking plans in more detail.
Line Tracking FAQ
What does it mean when a line moves?
It means the bookmaker has changed the odds. This usually happens because of team news or because too much money has come in on one side.
Should I bet early or late?
It depends. Betting early can get you better odds before the market reacts. Betting late lets you see the final team news. Many punters track both and bet when the price looks best.
What is the difference between sharp and square money?
Sharp money comes from experienced, successful punters. Square money comes from casual punters, often backing popular teams. Square money can create value on the other side.
Do South African bookmakers move their lines too?
Yes. Local bookmakers adjust their odds just like international ones. Popular events, such as Springbok tests and big soccer derbies, often see the most movement because so many fans bet on them.
Is line tracking worth it for casual punters?
Even casual punters can benefit. Simply checking a few bookmakers before betting, and noticing when a price has moved a lot, can help you avoid poor odds and spot better ones.
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